2009 Sleepers
QB / Shaun Hill / SF
ADP: 232 / Next Year Potential: Top 150 overall
Why: 14 TD in 8 games as a starter should be enough to secure Hill the starting job this season. The 49ers also won 5 of those 8 games which is more important in the coaches eyes. Look to be able to grab Hill very deep in most leagues and continue or improve on his success from last season.
QB / Joe Flacco / BAL
ADP: 145 / Next Year Potential: Top 75-100
Why: After throwing for almost 3,000 yards and leading the Ravens to the AFC Championship game as a rookie, Flacco should be more involved in the offense as a sophomore. He threw for a modest 14 tds with 12 picks, but I expect him to improve on both fronts. A revamped line should help his cause. Expect Matt Ryan to grab all the 2nd year QB attention and Flacco to fall to quite a few rounds later.
QB / Carson Palmer / CIN
Value Pick
ADP: 87 / Next Year Potential: Top 6-10 QB
Why: Last years injuries compounded with an overall collapse of the Bengals offense will have most managers looking past Palmer. His WR corp is still very talented. He's a classic value pick and could put up top 10 or even top 5 numbers if fully healthy. Start looking for him after the top 10 rated backs are off the board.
QB / David Gerrard / JAC
Value Pick
ADP: 126 / Next Year Potential: Top 10 QB
Why: Gerrard may never make it to the elite level but his current ADP (131) makes him an excellent value at QB2. He should be in the 15-20 Td range again and is good for few rushing TDs.
RB / Darren McFadden / Oak
ADP: 42 / Next Year Potential: 1st Round
How: While surrounded by a questionable Raider offense and Fargas and Bush, Run-Dmc is still a highlight reel waiting to happen. If his injuries are behind him and he gets 15 + touches per game he could really put up some numbers. If the Raider offense gets on track and he emerges as the workhorse he could be the next Marshall Faulk. He should fall below the top 15-20 rbs in most drafts and has potential to be a solid first rounder next year.
RB / Felix Jones / DAL
ADP: 76 / Next Year Potential: Top RB potential
How: Jones missed most of last season with a toe injury but prior to getting hurt he was lightning ion a bottle. His 8.9 ypc reflects his explosiveness. Marion Barber is the clear starter but look for Felix to spell him on 3rd downs and the occasional series. He may be used in the slot as well. He proved last year that he can break one from anywhere on the field. Dallas should be more of a run first offense this season. If Barber misses anytime, Jones is an instant stud.
RB / Donald Brown / IND
ADP: 98Next Year Potential: 1st Round
How: We have never been that high on Joseph Addia and expect Brown to at some point this season take over the starting job. Brown is fast with good vision and should fit seamlessly in the Colts offense. He has a good enough of combo of size and speed to be an every down player in the NFL. Keep in mind however as long as Addia is healthy they should each manage enough carries to keep each other out of the top 10 rankings despite who is starting. Grab him a few rounds earlier in dynasty leagues.
RB / Rashard Mendenhall / PIT
ADP: 96 / Next Year Potential: 1st Round
Why: Like Felix Jones Mendenhall may be forgotten after missing getting hurt in week 4. Unlike Jones though, he did little with his limited time on the field. He will be the short yardage back and could amass 10-12 TDs this season. If Parker misses any time his stock rises considerably. Mendenhall is a must have handcuff who should find the end zone often.
RB / Cedric Benson / CIN
Value Pick
ADP: 86 / Next Year Potential: 30-40
How: Benson will be overlooked in most drafts and probably slip into the 20s. He should be the starter and could be a very solid rb2. He showed flashes late in the season. He totaled 462 yards in the last 3 games. If Palmer brings the passing game back, Benson could be a very productive back.
RB / Chris Beanie Wells / ARZ
ADP: 70 / Next Year Potential: 1st Round
How: Tim Hightower should start week one but I don't expect him to be starting by midseason. Hightower showed few flashes last season and his 2.8 yards per carry sticks out like a sore thumb. Wells should contend for ROY and could be this years Matt Forte.
WR / Earl Bennett / CHI
ADP: 172 / Next Year Potential: Top 20 WR
How: Another very deep sleeper here. Bennett was used primarily in the return game last season but it looks like hes making a lot of noise in camp so far and seems to be Cutler's go to guy. (they played an Vandy together so they have a history) We don't like to read too deep into preseason hype but he may be worth a very late roster spot in deeper leagues.
WR / Domenik Hixon / NYG
ADP: 157 / Next Year Potential: Top 15-20 WR
How: With Plax long gone and no off season big inkings, Dom becomes the heir apparent as the top Giant WR. Its hard to tell if he will end the season that way with a large stable of young WRs on the roster but he's certainly the front runner at this point.
WR / Robert Meachem / NO
ADP: 302 / Next Year Potential: Top 10 WR
How: We were clearly to high on Meachem last season, but feel the talented WR still has a chance to come on. Entering his 3rd year Meachem finally looks comfortable on the field and more importantly looks to have earned the trust of Brees. He's been frequently targeted on both short and deep routes so far in camp. He may have more upside (as well as be more of a gamble) than all our other sleeper WRs.
WR / Mike Walker / Jax
ADP: 229 / Next Year Potential: Top 15 WR
How: We expected big things from him last year and he did show flashes but unfortunately was injured most of the year. Considered more talented than Brandon Marshall while in school together, the young Walker may finally have his chance to shine. Jacksonville pretty much cleaned house at WR this offseason leaving newly acquired Holt and Walker as the 2 clear starters.
WR / Josh Morgan / SF
ADP: 150 / Next Year Potential: Top 15 WR
How: We think Morgan could have a break out season. The talent is there. If SF can get consistency out of the QB position, Morgan could be a solid WR2 verging on WR. He should be the leading WR on what could be a decent offense this year. Again, a lot will hinge on the QB development.
WR / Sidney Rice / MIN
ADP: 222 / Next Year Potential: Top 20 WR
How: Like Mike Walker, we were expecting big things from Rice last season but like Walker, injuries plagued the then sophomore after a promising rookie season. Staying healthy and Qb stability will certainly be a huge factor with Rice entering his 3rd year and we would have liked him a lot more with Favre in the picture, but we still consider him a worthy late round pick in larger leagues.
TE / Chase Coffman / CIN
ADP: 349 / Next Year Potential: Top 10 TE
How: Most owners will be avoiding all Bengals this year but don't count them out fantasy wise quite yet. A healthy Palmer pluys a questionable line means lots of drop offs. Coffman caught 90, yes 90 passes his senior year so he's got a knack for the ball. Take him as your BU TE with potential to be your started at some point.